Futures of artificial intelligence through technology readiness levels

Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers the potential to transform our lives in radical ways. However, main unanswered questions about this foreseen transformation are its depth, breadth and timelines. To answer them, not only do we lack tools determine what achievements will be attained near future, but even ignore various technologies present-day AI capable of. Many so-called breakthroughs associated with highly-cited research papers or good performance some particular benchmarks. directly translate into a technology that is ready use real-world environments. In paper, present novel exemplar-based methodology categorise assess several technologies, by mapping them onto Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) (representing their depth maturity availability). We first interpret nine TRLs context of AI, identify categories which they can assigned. then introduce generality dimension, represents increasing layers technology. These two dimensions lead new readiness-vs-generality charts, show higher achievable for low-generality focusing on narrow specific abilities, while high still out reach more general capabilities. include numerous examples variety fields, serving as exemplars. Finally, how timelines exemplars at different help forecast short-term mid-term trends AI.